Earlier this week, Granite Staters and voters across the nation took to the polls on Election Day. While a historic rightward shift of the American electorate propelled Donald Trump to the presidency and drove Republicans into power across the nation, Democrats in New Hampshire managed to avoid the major losses seen in other states.
Despite a sweep of Republican victories at the State House, Democrats won at the presidential level, delivering the state’s 4 electoral votes to Kamala Harris - the 6th straight election they have done so. They also secured a Democratic sweep of the federal delegation for the 5th straight election. Even in the Governor’s race, where Republican Kelly Ayotte emerged victorious, Joyce Craig held Ayotte’s margin of victory to the tightest of all Republican candidates in the nation.
By no means do these silver linings negate the red wave that hit the country on Tuesday night, but as we start to assess the impacts of the 2024 elections, let’s take a look at what happened on Election Day in New Hampshire, as well as where we go from here.
Continued, Unprecedented Success in Federal Races
Despite New Hampshire Republicans’ victories in the State House and Governor’s race, Democrats fared well in our state’s federal races. Both congressional districts’ races were won by Democratic candidates. Incumbent Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas had the strongest performance of the night, defeating Republican challenger Russell Prescott in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District by just over 8%, significantly overperforming this traditionally toss-up district. Maggie Goodlander won the race to succeed retiring Congresswoman Annie Kuster in the 2nd Congressional District, defeating her Free State Project Republican opponent Lily Tang Williams by about 6%.
With these victories, Democrats hold all 4 seats in the federal delegation, as they have since 2016. For context, prior to 2016, Democrats had never held all 4 seats at the same time since US Senators started being popularly elected in 1913.
At the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris prevailed, earning New Hampshire’s four electoral votes. While New Hampshire communities were not immune to the red wave that swept the nation, UNH political science professor Dante Scala assured that while state GOP leaders are likely to cite this year’s results as evidence that New Hampshire’s political personality has transformed, Harris’ victory in the state, performing a few percentage points better here than nationally, contradict that conclusion.
Avoiding the Nightmare Scenario at the State House
There’s no doubt that NH Republicans had a great night at the state level on Tuesday night, holding onto the Governor’s office and holding their majorities on the Executive Council, in the State Senate, and in the State House.
But Democrats did avoid the nightmare scenario that the Granite State experienced in 2011-12, when Republicans had supermajorities in both legislative chambers. And with the full MAGA takeover of the NH Republican Party, a supermajority would have allowed them to propose dangerous amendments to our state Constitution, such as eliminating the state’s responsibility to fund public education.
And there were rays of hope for State House Democrats in Tuesday’s results. Democrats did manage to flip some Republican-held seats in the House, including Dan Bergeron defeating 9-term GOP incumbent Will Infantine in Manchester Ward 6, Dems picking up a seat in Merrimack County District 7 which marks the first time that New London is not represented by a Republican in the House since 1936(!), and Amy Malone defeating incumbent GOP Rep. Brandon Phinney in Rochester Ward 6. Democrats also held all their seats in historically GOP towns like Bedford and Merrimack and defeated disgraced GOP Rep. Jon Stone in Sullivan County.
No Time to Waste: What to Expect in 2026
It may seem premature to be talking about the midterms just a few days after polls closed, but the work to hold MAGA Republicans accountable and build the foundation for success in 2026 begins now. We will spend plenty of time covering the extreme and dangerous proposals in Concord and Washington with Republicans in control over the next two years, but today, let’s look at the landscape Granite Staters will be facing in 2026.
First, and most importantly, Democrats’ success in federal elections will once again be on display in 2026, when US Senator Jeanne Shaheen will be up for reelection and leading the ticket. Shaheen, the first woman in US history to serve as both Governor and US Senator, will undoubtedly build a strong campaign and help to carry the entire Democratic ticket, as she has every time she appears on the ballot.
And the dynamics of the midterms with Republicans controlling the White House, Congress, and the State House will definitely favor Democrats. When these “red wave” elections occur, the following election has marked significant gains for Democrats:
Following the Gingrich red wave in 1994, NH Democrats came back in 1996 and elected Jeanne Shaheen as Governor for the first time.
Following the post-9/11 red wave in 2002, NH Democrats defeated scandal-plagued Craig Benson and elected John Lynch for the first time in 2004.
Following the Tea Party red wave in 2010, NH Democrats rallied in 2012 to elect Maggie Hassan as Governor, re-take the majorities in the NH House and Executive Council, and flip our two congressional seats.
And following the first Trump red wave in 2016, NH Democrats swept into power in 2018, taking majorities on the Executive Council, in the State Senate, and in the NH House.
None of these silver linings can make up for the disappointment we all felt on Tuesday evening as we watched the results pour in. But it's vital to the future of our state and our nation that we continue to be engaged in the fight to make New Hampshire a place where everyone has the opportunity to succeed. As Vice President Harris said in her concession speech on Wednesday, “On the campaign, I would often say when we fight, we win. But here’s the thing…sometimes the fight takes a while. That doesn’t mean we won’t win.”
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Thank you,
Ryan Mahoney
Executive Director