In just one month, Governor-elect Kelly Ayotte will be sworn in as New Hampshire’s 83rd Governor. And while her plate will be full of important challenges to tackle: the housing crisis and skyrocketing property taxes chief among them, Ayotte will enter the corner office with a series of advantages that would make most other incoming Governors green with envy.
Last week, we outlined some of the questions we had about the upcoming legislative session, but this week, let’s look at the sizable advantages Ayotte will have as she takes office and the high expectations Granite Staters should have of their Govenor-elect:
Ayotte Takes Office with Unprecendented Experience
After serving as Legal Counsel to Governor Benson, as NH Attorney General for five years, and as US Senator for six years, Kelly Ayotte will assume the office of Governor with arguably more experience in state and federal government than any of her 82 predecessors. And while prior experience in government doesn’t correlate with being a successful Governor (Gov. John Lynch had no elected experience to taking office in 2005 and he remains the most popular Governor we’ve ever had), Ayotte’s experience means that she should have no learning curve when she takes office. If Ayotte stumbles early in her tenure, it would be a serious red flag for her ability to lead the Granite State.
Taking the Reins from Sununu Should Mean Trouble-Free Transition
Ayotte will be the first Republican Governor to directly succeed another Republican Governor in more than 30 years. In fact, she will be just the second Governor to succeed a Governor of the same party since 1992. And with her close relationship with outgoing Governor Sununu, the transition into the corner office should be effortless. Any signs of trouble during the transition or in her first months in office would be signs of trouble to come for Ayotte.
Full GOP Control of Government Provides Ayotte Ability to Enact Agenda
Ayotte assumes office with her party holding a 44-seat majority in the NH House and supermajorities on the Executive Council and in the State Senate. No incoming Governor in the last 20 years has been able to rely on as many allies as Ayotte will, which should enable her to fully enact her agenda both through the legislative process and through appointed positions within state government without issue. And with full GOP control of Congress and Trump in the White House, Ayotte should be able to count on ideological allies at every level of government.
If Ayotte’s agenda gets bogged-down with party in-fighting or she is forced to break promises she made to Granite Staters during the campaign in order to satisfy the far right, it will be a clear indication that Ayotte is not up to the challenge of solving the serious problems that years of unchecked Republican control have created for the Granite State.
Trump-Driven Chaos Provides Ayotte with Opportunity to Appear Moderate
If Trump’s first term as President is any indicator of what the next four years will look like, the domination of Trump coverage in the press and the general chaos he will bring to the White House will provide Ayotte the same opportunity that Sununu had when he took office: the ability to appear reasonable and moderate compared to the leader of the GOP. Granite Staters should expect Ayotte to occasionally break with President Trump, even if it is just a political calculation. But if Ayotte fails to separate herself from Trump, especially on policies that raise costs on hardworking Granite Staters, it could be a rough few years for Ayotte.
Expectations Don’t Equal Results
But what do all these advantages mean for Governor-elect Ayotte? The short answer is we don’t know yet. We only have to look at Ayotte’s mentor, former Governor Craig Benson, as a cautious tale of a Governor taking office with just some of the advantages that Ayotte will enjoy. Benson won office in 2002.
Benson had a huge mandate when he took office, having won his election by 20 points, having supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, all five seats on the Executive Council, and enjoying the post-9/11 bounce that all GOP elected officials benefitted from. But all these advantages quickly faded away and Benson became the first Governor in modern NH history to lose re-election after just one term.
Over the next two years, Granite Staters will be watching Kelly Ayotte closely to see if she capitalizes on the advantages she has coming into office or if she squanders her opportunities.
And there are some real questions to be answered about Ayotte’s tenure. Will she keep promises to lower costs for New Hampshire families? Will Ayotte protect the rights of all Granite Staters, particularly their reproductive freedoms? Will she stand up to those in her party who want to continue taking New Hampshire down the wrong path of far right extremism and financial mismanagement?
If Ayotte fails, it won’t be for lack of experience, it will be for lack of backbone, integrity, or competence. Ayotte campaigned on some big promises, and we will be watching to hold her accountable over the next two years.
What’s Happening in NH?
Despite promises from NH Republicans during the campaign season to not further restrict reproductive freedoms, including abortion, the legislation that’s been filed shows how empty these promises were.
More than 180,000 hardworking Granite Staters are at immediate risk of losing their health care coverage if Trump and Congressional Republicans get their way and cut funding for Medicaid Expansion.
Not satisfied with skyrocketing property tax rates, this week a top NH Republican floated the possibility of a sales tax in the Granite State.
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Thank you,
Ryan Mahoney
Executive Director